The New Orleans Saints struggle in Tyler Shough’s first full season as a starter, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take another worrying step backward. In this simulation (they pick up a second consecutive division hockey betting tips title), earning the No. 1 seed in the division in the process. The Chicago Bears are possibly the most intriguing team heading into 2026, with several reasons to expect both regression and continued improvement. Liam Coen continues to build a genuine contender in Jacksonville, and four consecutive wins to close out the year secured a second consecutive division title. In a tight AFC South battle (the Tennessee Titans narrowly miss out on a playoff spot with eight wins), while the Indianapolis Colts fall short for the sixth straight year. Aaron Rodgers has yet to commit to the team for 2026, and even if he does, the Steelers’ schedule is not pretty.

The Bengals are back in (though), four years since facing the Chiefs in back-to-back conference championship games. In this scenario, it’s highly likely that the team gets a good look at Carson Beck, but that they’re also in the market for his immediate replacement in the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s hard not to feel sorry for the Cardinals — with three of the top teams in the NFL all playing for their division. The Buffalo Bills get back on top of their division — with the Patriots winning six fewer games in this simulation than they did in 2025. The FPM projects Pittsburgh for just over eight wins, and only five would be a huge surprise, but it’s within the range of outcomes. We ran a 2026 season simulation using PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor — which uses PFSN’s strength of schedule rankings and power rankings to predict each of the 272 games individually.

• The Cowboys close the season with games against divisional foes, the Commanders and Giants.
• If the eight divisions play out exactly as we see above in our projected standings, here’s what the 14-team playoff bracket would look like.
• Adding Azeez Ojulari was a pretty nice move — and I like what this team did in the draft, continuing to stock great players.
• Simply avoid focusing on the weeks that follow directly (or those preceding them), for reasons I’ll clarify shortly.
• The Eagles are going back to the playoffs — and perhaps all the way back to the Super Bowl.

High point: Weeks 1-5.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a big betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Seahawks’ offensive unknowns seemed to influence the final win-loss decision whenever more stable operations appeared on the calendar. Despite having a week off to prepare, and the added benefit of catching the Commanders on short rest fresh off a loss at Kansas City, the Seahawks are unable to capture a potentially season-altering victory at the midpoint. The win pushes Seattle above .500 for the first and last time in 2025.

Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Bears.

Last year, neither of the two teams made it to the playoffs, but this year, they should be anticipated to put up a fight. The first overall pick will attract numerous inquiries, as the Raiders are not expected to seek one of the top quarterback talents in the draft. The AFC champions will consist of a team apart from the Kansas City Chiefs or the Patriots for the third time since 2013, given that both teams did not qualify for the playoffs. With winning records for all four teams — the NFC North continues to uphold its reputation as one of the most challenging divisions in the NFL. The New York Jets are displaying improvement with seven victories and possess a valuable array of draft picks for 2027 to further enhance their young lineup.

Realistically, first-, second-, or third-year quarterbacks may lead six of the bottom seven teams as the season concludes. Given that the Jaguars and the Houston Texans are separated by only 0.3 wins (and only two wins separate all four teams), the AFC South is predicted to be the most competitive division. It also provides the count of simulations where a team secures the division title and advances to the playoffs. For preseason assessments, it considers how changes in quarterbacks and coaching may influence those teams.

While I would love the narrative twist, it is challenging for me to foresee a win for Detroit in this situation. After the offseason departures of key coaching staff (many will be watching the Lions closely), and I believe they’ll respond positively, starting off strong… In the midst of total chaos, Williams managed to throw for 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns as a rookie in 2024.

Even though the bottom falls out after Thanksgiving — I suspect many of those December games — like at Houston and against Atlanta — will end up being close. After winning consecutive road games (including this matchup at Seattle), the Cardinals hit the midpoint at 6-3, putting themselves in the thick of the NFC West race. Tampa could certainly outperform my projection early on, but I’ll be more confident in the timing of the team’s eventual course correction once its talented left tackle and sure-handed WR2 return to the starting lineup. Back-to-back wins give the devoted NOLA fans something to celebrate — and rookie Tyler Shough a moment of respite in an otherwise-challenging rookie season. Four of Carolina’s six projected wins are within the NFC South, marking just the second time the franchise has posted a winning divisional record in a decade. Instead (Atlanta finishes with nine total losses), allowing Tampa to sit its starters in the regular-season finale.

Went back and forth on this game until ultimately siding with Atlanta. The 2025 Panthers could be a prime example of a team that’s better than its projected record. A strong start would do wonders for this franchise. If Bryce Young’s sophomore resurgence carries over into Year 3 and the team’s revamped defense clicks from the jump, Carolina could certainly win at Jacksonville. Unable to translate competitive performances — including this close one at Lambeau — into Ws, the Panthers hit the midpoint with just two wins on their ledger. The floor is pretty high for him, and I thus wouldn’t be surprised if he and his squad undercut my analysis here by making a run to the playoffs similar to what Bo Nix and the Broncos accomplished last year.

With the teams owning picks 2-6 all likely looking for a quarterback in this scenario — it’s highly likely the Jets would need to use that draft capital to pull off a trade. In their first five games of the season, the Eagles face four teams that made the 2024 playoffs … As high as I am on the 49ers, even great teams have bad games. You’ll find our conference seeding for the entire playoff field — including our individual picks for the eight division winners and six wild-card teams.

Is it possible for Jaxson Dart to surpass Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, guiding the Giants to the playoffs this year and proving us both wrong? Simply avoid focusing on the weeks that follow directly, or those preceding them, for reasons I’ll clarify shortly. In my scenario (the negative atmosphere leads to a poor beginning), culminating in this loss to the Panthers, which leaves the Cowboys at 1-5. This period could determine the possibility of a playoff return, especially if circumstances improve beyond our current projections during Brian Schottenheimer’s inaugural season.

I like the Vikings’ general approach, and I believe McCarthy is going to be a great quarterback in Minnesota. What better time for the Vikes to pull off a huge win than in J.J. After their transatlantic trip, the Vikings get a bye — then hit a three-game skid. Adding veteran running back Josh Jacobs to the offense worked out great last season, and rookie receiver Matthew Golden is going to be a stud this year. The emotional letdown gives this setback an edge in this category over being swept by the Bears for the first time since 2007. In the end, Rodgers’ former squad stays on an early roll while taking some of the starch out of Pittsburgh’s own encouraging start, dropping the Steelers to 4-3.

A tough one at Tampa at the end of November kicks off a brutal stretch that includes home-and-away tilts against the Rams, as well as trips to Houston and Cincinnati. When this team is at full strength, I think it can be a problem for anybody — including the mighty Eagles. But I’d be surprised if this team doesn’t encounter its fair share of growing pains as it ushers in a new era of Saints football. But I wouldn’t count out a rested Saints team making a statement at home against a hated rival.

There are enough veteran leaders on hand for New Orleans to win twice as many games as projected, presuming competent quarterback play. But as promising as the improved pass rush might look on paper, I won’t be convinced the team has fixed its issues in that area until I see it when the games count. It’ll be fun to see what the discussion is around these two teams, and this game, a few months from now. The Packers are a very good team, and they will make the playoffs for the third straight time. The Giants have a window to potentially stack a couple of wins together here, when they host the Chargers (who must endure the dreaded early East Coast start time), then visit the rebuilding Saints.